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Nate Silver, who runs the website FiveThirtyEight, and is regarded as guru of political predictions, on Monday gave Hillary Clinton a 92-percent chance of winning Michigan.
The predictions are based on an analysis of many polls, some of which he gives more credence than others.
We’ve collected 54 polls in Michigan so far. The model weights each poll by its sample size, how recently it was conducted, and the historical accuracy and methodology of the polling firm. The model then adjusts each poll based on other factors.
For neighboring Ohio, he gives Clinton a nearly 60-percent chance of beating Trump. In Indiana, he gives Trump an 84.9 percent chance of beating Clinton.
On the national level, he gives Clinton an 86-percent chance of winning.
From now until the Nov. 8 election, we'll notify you of any significant changes in his predictions.
