All across the country right now, football pundits are publishing their NFL draft grades. Draft prognostication is basically a form of professional lying. Grading an NFL draft in the hours after the process ends, is a little like predicting the careers of babies in the delivery room.
One can analyze the pros and cons of a given player. One can speculate as to how a given player can fill a need and/or fit on a given team's roster. One can even note which teams do well historically evaluating players and what schools have a track record of producing NFL talent.
But that's the limit of draft analysis. Draft grades are the guesswork from journalistic conmen.
That's why why so many teams get a grade ranging from B+ to C. Those marks are high enough to give fans hope -- no one ever went broke selling hope to sports fans -- but also low enough so a pundit can be sufficiently critical in case a given draft class proves to be a disaster.
What Mel Kiper and ESPN should do, if they had a modicum of integrity, is go back five years and grade every teams' selections from that draft. In doing so, over time, we could have a better understanding how how well some teams draft and how poorly other teams draft. Of course, integrity in Bristol is about as rare as Chanukah parties in Saudi Arabia, so we don't get that from the draft professionals.
As a service to Deadline Detroit readers, I do go back five years and attempt to grade how the Lions did. We looked at the 2007 draft last year. This year, we'll review the 2008 draft class.
First, here's what draft expert Mel Kiper said at the time. Remember, he's an expert
Detroit Lions: GRADE: C+
Gosder Cherilus is a right tackle who is an effective run-blocker, which is why the Lions drafted him in the first round. But third-round pick Kevin Smith is the key player in the Lions' draft class. Smith proved at Central Florida he could carry the load, and in my opinion, he'll be the Lions' starting running back in Week 1. Jordon Dizon is undersized for a middle linebacker, but he has a chance to be productive in Detroit's scheme, because he has the ability to cover the deep middle. Fullback Jerome Felton is more effective as a runner than a blocker, but he's a good value pick in the fifth round. Army safety Caleb Campbell went in the seventh round and is big at 229 pounds. Campbell could be an OLB if he puts on 10 to 15 pounds. Cliff Avril could be a decent pass-rusher, although he had only six sacks in 2007. DT Andre Fluellen flashed big-time ability early in his career at Florida State but never lived up to it.
Let's see how they really turned out.
First round, pick 17: Gosder Cherilus T Boston College: Let's start with something positive, Cherilus started 71 games on Detroit's line. That said, he'll play for Indianapolis next season because the Lions weren't interested in paying him to start a 72nd game in the Honolulu blue and silver. He's still in the league, but he wasn't the OL anchor the Lions were hoping for. Nine picks later, Houston selected all-pro tackle Duane Brown. (Grade D+)
Second round, pick 45: Jordon Dizon OLB Colorado: After a couple middling seasons, Dizon ended his career on the IR. A non-factor. (Grade F)
Third round, pick 64: Kevin Smith RB UCF: Smith did "carry the load" during his 976-yard/8 TD rookie season, but has been injury-prone ever since. (Grade D)
