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Earlier this week we noted that Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight site gave Hillary Clinton a 92-percent chance of winning Michigan. That was Monday.
Now, with the latest WikiLeaks dump, things have shifted a little.
On Friday, the site gave Clinton an 85.6-percent chance of carrying this state, compared to Trump's 14.4 percent.
Overall, for the national election, Silver on Monday gave Clinton an 86-percent chance of winning. On Friday, that dropped to 81.3 percent.
On Thursday, Silver posts:
Pretty much everyone has an incentive to push the narrative that the presidential race is tightening. The television networks would like for you to keep tuning in to their horse-race coverage. Hillary Clinton’s campaign would like for you to turn out to vote, instead of getting complacent. Donald Trump’s campaign would like you to know that its candidate still has a chance.
But what do the polls say? The race probably is tightening — but perhaps not as much as the hype on the cable networks would imply. In our polls-only forecast, Trump has narrowed Clinton’s lead in the popular vote to roughly 6 percentage points from 7 points a week ago, and his chances of winning have ticked up to 17 percent from 13 percent. In our polls-plus forecast, Trump’s chances are up to 19 percent from 16 percent. Because of the high level of uncertainty in the race, we can’t say the door is closed on a narrow Trump victory. And we’re certainly a week or two removed from the period when every poll brought good news for Clinton: Plenty of polls now show negative trend lines for her (in addition to others that show a positive trend). But the race hasn’t fundamentally changed all that much, and Clinton remains in a strong position.
