Longtime business writer and author John Gallagher has seen lots of ideas come and go during two decades of urban redevelopment coverage for the Free Press. Some projects were built, many weren't.
That perspective leads him to look at "a flurry of major development announcements lately" with cautious eyes and realistic questions:
How many of these ambitious projects will actually get built? How many will never happen?
Mayor Dave Bing doesn't expect to see cranes at the abandoned Packard plant and surrounding area.
To help readers makes sense of the announcements, Gallagher offers "some clues . . . to tell which of today’s promising proposals will survive to maturity."
Generally, the more solid a deal is to begin with, the more its financing is in place and the more experienced the developer, the more likely it will actually get built.
When somebody floats the idea of a big new project with nothing behind it but a pretty picture, don’t bet on it happening.
The don't-bet-on-it category, the reporter suggests, may include new plans to renovate the old Packard plant.
This month, developer William Hults, based in Evanston, Ill., a suburb of Chicago, said he envisions not only a mixed-used renovation of the Packard facility itself but a square-mile redevelopment of the surrounding area. He’s negotiating with the Wayne County Treasurer’s Office to buy the site by paying back taxes that now top $970,000.
Mayor Dave Bing is among skeptics, Gallagher notes, because environmental cleanups would swell the cost of work there.
In contrast, the writer cites solid preparation by Olympia Development before it unveiled plans for a new sports arena and entertainment district on the north end of downtown.
They had already lined up state and city support. The Michigan Strategic Fund quickly approved public bonds to help pay for the project on Wednesday, and the city of Detroit has signed off on the deal, too.
The arena deal could still fall through, but it looks solid for now.
At the Detroit Economic Growth Corp., Gallagher notes, staff members refer informally to proposals that are "prospects" and others that are "suspects."
“One way to tell who a suspect is: They like to sell their deal in the media before coming to the folks to discuss the business issues,” [DEGC president George] Jackson said. “And they also avoid proper due diligence, or they fail in proper due diligence and then try to make their case in the press or through political means."
